cryptonomics

Apologies for being reclusive over the last couple months. I've been a little busy relocating. Lets discuss some of my favorite topics: monetary policy, global trade, and (you guessed it) cryptocurrencies. First: Hyper inflation, bad... very bad. very very very bad. controlled inflation, ok. Inflation has taken a beating throughout the blockchain community. Mainly from Bitcoin Maximalists. Scarcity, along with supply and demand, creates value. However, scarcity also leads to a decrease in the velocity of money, and lead to hoarding. Why? When resources are scarce, humans conserve. Think of the price of oil. When the price of oil is high, the price of gas is high. When the price of oil is low, the price of gas is low. You can see the correlation by comparing the next two graphs. The price (USD) of oil per barrel. Chart by MacroTrends The price (USD) of a gallon of gas. Chart by  Gas Buddy When oil is abundant: supply goes beyond demand (most recent 2014), and p...

There are a few things that we need to look at when comparing cryptocurrencies to bubbles. First, supply and demand. Second, the market. Third, value of money. The cryptocurrency bubble and the tulip bubble have some similarities, as well as some differences. When farmers see the price of crop A increasing dramatically, they have some choices. Ignore the price rise and continue to grow crop B, losing out on the potential gain in income, which some will do. This has no affect on crop A. If they are already growing crop A, then they will be able reinvest excess profits and grow more of their cash crop, crop A. This increases supply of crop A. If they are growing any other crop, and see a price rise in crop A, they will have an incentive to shift from their current crop at the end of the season, and grow a crop that will bring in more revenue (crop A). Increasing supply of crop A. However, increasing the supply of crop A won't happen over night, as crops take months to grow. As c...

A world that uses Bitcoin (or another scarce  cryptocurrency) as a base currency could create a better, more innovative one. One could argue that the velocity of money is driven by the demand for luxury goods and services. On top of that, an economy is only as good as the labour within it. The money hoarder will exchange the hoarded currency if there is a good or service that he/she desires. If there is no desired good or service, then there is no reason that the money hoarder should put his/her money back into circulation. This will give the markets a reason to innovate and create demand for luxury goods and services. There will be less complacency in the markets as companies and industries compete for your money. A historical example of complacency is the Spaniards post colonization of America. After the Spaniards colonized the Americas, they inherited vast amounts of gold. What was once a scarce commodity was less scarce. Instead of boosting exports to create more wealth, S...

If you think cryptos are worthless the scary reality is that your dollar is also worthless. You should become a gold bug. The reason for your dollar being worthless is because it isn’t backed by anything aside from a government that is set on devaluing your dollar by setting an inflation target of two percent. Does anyone remember when you could pick up a candy bar for ~$0.50? Better days, right? Now a candy bar is ~$0.89. Prices are increasing while quality is flatlining. Shouldn't the cost of a candy bar decrease over time as innovation/competition enters the market? @chriscanno The answer is: yes. Innovation and competition should lower prices, but the central bank is set the hold the cost of goods at a certain price with their inflation target. What is happening is that The Federal Reserve is digitally pumping money into the system to keep prices lower. What gives precious metals value is scarcity. If we all have ten ounces of gold because someone can just 3D pri...

The philosophical thought process behind currency has been around for centuries, and has continually evolved. Aristotle gave three functions of money: a means of exchange, measure of value, and a store of value for future transactions. Cryptocurrencies meet Aristotle's three functions of money, but there is still a link missing from this cryptocurrency chain. Averroes added a fourth: a reserve of purchasing power. Not only does money serve as a store of value, but money could be spent at any time without having the need to be sold. This is where cryptocurrencies fall short, and it seems that this could be one of the reasons that we see such sell offs in the cryptoverse. Cryptocurrencies have come a long way since their conception, and have done well (so far) under the 2017 lime light. In order for cryptocurrencies to reach the end goal of a being a true form of money, we will need to see adoption for payments receivable (such as retail) sector. Until then we will continue to ...

In my unprofessional opinion, an ICO (Initial Coin Offering) will replace the IPO (Initial Public Offering) just like the Decentralized Exchanges (DEX) will replace current exchanges, and Atomic Swaps will be fluid in our daily transactions. This will take time, as regulation will be made, and our understanding of blockchain deepens. However, we already have had many ICOs, and we already have a few DEXs. An ICO should be looked at as an unregulated way for a firm in the crypto-space to raise money, and fund their project(s). It is a way for crypto-firms to bypass regulation and raise funds quickly, while jumping onto the cryptocurrency hype, so caution must be taken as most crypto-enthusiasts see ~90% of ICOs failing. In the ICO's current state, when you purchase a coin/token, you don't own a share of that firm. The firm isn't required to disclose information as they would after an IPO. However, if there is a lot of buzz around said firm, their token value theoreti...

I have been coming across some interesting readings; from the recent way to breed digital kitties on Ethereum to a pretty interesting piece from Hackernoon, " Bitcoin's Final Boss ". So, the Ethereum network has been congested again. This time it isn't being congested by ICOs, instead, Digital Kittens ( Cryptokitties ) that look... nice(?). Cryptokitties made up 11% of Ethereums traffic (12/05/2017). This is seen as problematic as new users continure to pile into the cryptocurrency space, and the problems of a congested network persist. This is problematic because this isn't just oddly adorable kittens unable to breed, this is people's money on the line. Forgive me of my inability to adequately tell this next story, but know that I tried. The last time that I had an experience with congestion (aside from all the times the coinbase app has crashed on me) I had a margin position open on Poloniex . In which I had gone long Ethereum, as it was ascending ...

We live in a day of globalization. Technology has delivered ways to communicate with one another through miles of under water internet cables. Transportation is slowly becoming cheaper and more innovative; from captain-less cargo ships transporting goods across the globe, to the possibility of hyperloops from Dubai to Abu Dhabi or LA to San Francisco in less than 30 minutes.  30 minutes to travel 380 miles which is 6 hours in a car. In this fourth industrial revolution, why are we still allowing banks to take days to complete a transaction? Cryptocurrencies are the next step to globalization for consumers and businesses alike. These digital currencies will break down currency barriers, and allow everyone to exchange goods and services with little to no fees. There will be no need to exchange currencies through a third party, as you have millions of super computers hashing away for you. Hackers? pfff, not really something to worry about as they would have to take over 51% of thos...

Most of us are familiar with our country's currency (insert your countries form of currency: USD CAD, JPY, GBP, CNY) wether it is physical or digital we are willing to exchange goods and services for it. For centuries, people of earth have relied, and trusted a third party to hold, and transfer, their currency. From the ancient templars escorting precious metals across the globe on behalf of others, or exchanging them for ancient bank notes; to bankers as we know them today holding our money. As society has advanced, so has the banking system. In the digital world, we have become use to instant access. Instant access to whatever news organization happened to get their hands on a story first followed by a flood of other sources, even if the original is incorrect. Instant access to photos, and status updates. Technology is wild. Hell, last year I was watching kids enter the augmented reality of Pokemon Go on their phone as my girlfriend and I walked the streets of Burlingame, C...

For over the last year, Wall Street has been on the verbal attack of Bitcoin. They claim it is a bubble, even as far as saying that it is worse than the tulip bubble, or Enron. "Buy gold, not Bitcoin" they say... Gold suuuuuucks. Bitcoin being somewhat of a decentralized currency has bankers shaking. It removes bankers from the equations. As more and more people adopt Bitcoin and altcoins, bankers edge closer to losing all that they have built. Viewing Bitcoin as more of a commodity, they have tried ushering people into gold instead. It is 2017, why buy gold? If I need to cash my gold it, I have to find someone who buys gold, haul my gold to the person, and probably get ripped off by the guy. If I am holding Bitcoin, I can sell it on an exchange from the comfort of my own home. Regulation. Nobody feels that Bitcoin needs regulation, except Morgan Stanley and other banks lol. Bitcoin doesn't need a central bank, and it doesn't need governmental regulation. China...

As we all know, Bitcoin has had a glorious 2017 despite receiving heavy criticism from Jamie Dimon  ( cnbc ),  Warren Buffet  ( fox biz ), and even Saudi Prince Alwaleed  ( fortune ). Its most recent tailwinds: CME Group. First to the scene of Bitcoin Derivatives trading was  LedgerX , and now CME Group start  Bitcoin derivatives  ( bloomberg ) by the end of year. The entrance of CME Group pushed the price of BTC (Bitcoin) from ~$6,000  to ~$7,400. follow me on twitter   @postmattern  and   @bitfuturist

Bitcoin has become more than a currency. Not only will the value continue to increase (or drop to zero, who knows...) but it also continue to pay out dividends. You might be thinking, "a dividend? But, sir? I understand how a currency can fluctuate in value... but how can a currency also pay you a dividend?" Forks. When Bitcoin goes through a "fork" a group of developers take Bitcoin's Blockchain and tweak it to make a Blockchain that they feel will be better suite the general populace. In order to do so, they must use the exact blockchain up until the time they choose to fork at. Once they choose a block to fork at, and once Bitcoin's Blockchain reaches that block, a snapshot is taken. of the blockchain. Both Bitcoin's blockchain, and the forking blockchain will have an identical blockchain up until the time of the fork. So, if you are holding 10 Bitcoin when the snapshot is taken, you receive an additional 10 coins of the forked currency. Simil...

Many people have argued against Cryptocurrencies. Some have gone as far to say that it is the next Enron, or the next ' tulip bulbs ' bubble.  They say that it is just market euphoria. IMHO: Market euphoria hasn't hit digital currencies or even the stock market's incredible bull run (at least not yet, I see a little too many bears out there, and crashes happen when you don't expect them... just. like. Enron). 2017 has seen Bitcoin's value launch to the moon, and one reason I see behind it is as follows. The election of  Donald Trump  saw a boom in most asset classes. Equity sectors from Tech to Finance to Industrials received bumps. Why? One reason is the promise of deregulation. The prior eight years our economy has been crippled by regulation as we the people of the United States of America sat back and assumed that there was no way out of this global economic downturn. Central banks across the globe were cutting interest rates to try and inject life int...

Hello again. It has been a while. Cryptocurrencies dealt blow with Ban in China in September sparking a sell off. However, Bitcoin quickly rebounded from a low of ~2,800 shortly after. Ethereum undergoes Byzantium hard fork, but struggles to advance against USD. Continues to trade ~$300. Bitcoin owners received a nice forking dividend from Bitcoin Cash  (BCC) (soon to have Bitcoin Gold and two others coming later this year). Don't worry about BTC Forks, just sit back and enjoy the dividend, but not with Coinbase .  It is true that Coinbase simplifies owning digital currencies, but Bitcoin forks, they hold the forking Currency. If you have any questions about BTC Forks, you may tweet me  @bitfuturist IBM teams up with Stellar. AMD crushes Q2 ER (earnings report), continues to stay humble on its GPU sales (despite the cryptocurrency mining boom), and moderately lowers guidance. When asked about AMD's reasoning behind lowing guidance, AMD's response was ...

Ethereum continues pressing forward towards its all time high of about $390. Current price is  ~$380 on Coinmarketcap  while on Poloniex it is trading just north of $384 Shortly after hitting its previous all time high, it had about a 50% pull back. Ethereum has stayed relatively stable against BTC since it's 50% pull back, but against USD, it has since been on a steady ascent. Most altcoins have remained relatively stable against BTC, while appreciating against USD. Monero (XMR) had quite the run trading at ~.013 BTC (08.19.2017) and hitting .035 BTC on 08.27.2017 Since then it has had a slight pull back and is currently trading ~.029 BTC Ripple experienced quite the pump and dump as its creators gave some serious hype for guest speakers. This pump done by Ripple saw it trade from $.15 to $.29 Most of the trading has been seen from South Korea, according to data from Coinmarketcap.com *other reads: Bitcoin Insight How to Bitcoin/Altcoin $AMD and $NV...

Bitcoin's volatility can cause grief for new Bitcoiners who don't understand it's price swings. You can never find the perfect entry/exit when investing. To find safer entry/exits, you need to understand what you can of it. Bitcoin isn't your average currency that derives its value based off of a central bank being hawkish or dovish (raising or lowering interest rates). Instead, it derives its price from the market (or the general populace); Supply and Demand. If there are more buyers of BTC, the price goes up; more sellers, the price goes down. The good news for buyers of BTC is that it is currently in an uptrend. Despite its price swings, if you buy and hold; you will most likely be ok. So, when to buy Bitcoin? Great question, and I am very glad you asked. Looking at Bitcoins historical price chart over the last year can provide some insight to what could happen. Historically, when Bitcoin test its ATH (all time high), it is first met with some resistance, ...

When first looking in to buying Bitcoin, it can seem quite daunting. There are so many places to buy and sell. From my experience, I have found that the easiest way to buy and hold Bitcoin is to use Coinbase , even if our opinions don't align... The reason I have selected Coinbase is mainly because it is easy to use, and has a simplistic set up that doesn't require you to divulge, and verify, too much personal information. To set up, simply go to coinbase.com ,  or download the Coinbase app. Enter your First name, Last name, email, password, select your state, verify that you are not a robot, and agree to the 'terms and conditions'. Bam, that simple. *Update: they require more information including a photo ID Setting up a method of payment is quite easy, especially on the app. Once you add the card, and the card has been validated (which can take up to a few hours), then you can be a happy/unhappy Bitcoiner. I like coinbase for the simplicity, sleek design, a...

Advanced Micro Devices released Vega (not Frontier edition) today. It is sold out across the board on New Egg . Meanwhile, Ethereum's network hashrate has jumped up by 6 TH/s overnight. Currently at 86.7 TH/s Zcash's network hashrate seems to be climbing higher, but there is no way to be certain just yet. This is the second time this year that AMD has released a new GPU that has sold out the days of launch. The first was AMD's RX 570/580 which sold out very quickly at a price of ~$300. The new Vega GPUs have a starting price of $400 (Vega 56) and higher end of $699 (Vega 64). From what I have seen, these cards will do a great job mining for what you pay for them (around 35-45 MH/s). So if you are looking to buy, good luck. They will be sold out for a while. The RX 570/580, which was released around April 2017, is still impossible to get unless you are willing to pay double. Nvidia's GPUs are good for mining, but are generally too expensive. Miners have comp...

Bitcoin was highlighted on CNBC where the Bitcoin enthusiast set a target of 25,000 to 50,000 USD per coin, see it here BTC is trading around 3,575 USD and has had a steady ascent over the past week of 26% *BTC chart here BCH (Bitcoin Cash) seems to be continuing its wild ride, investers/traders still are uncertain of its future, as it has become another spinoff of Bitcoin. Current price is around .09 BTC. It is down 5% on the week, but up 12.8% on the day. It's intraday high peaked at .1 BTC *BCH chart here ETH (Ethereum) had a boost with other altcoins, which saw it peak at .094 BTC, since then it has had a pull back and is currently trading around .084 BTC or 300 USD. On the day it is down about 5% *ETH chart here ZEC (Zcash) had a nice little bump from ~.062 BTC ON 08.07, surged up to .075 BTC (08.08), but has erased almost all of its gains leaving it at a current level of .064 BTC *ZEC chart here LTC (Litecoin) although a one week chart has LTC down 13% against B...

Market analysts seem to be seeing only what they want to see when it comes to cryptocurrency mining and GPU demand. When the GPU mining craze started to boom in May, causing a shortage in AMD and NVDA GPUs, analysts were quick to say that it is just a short term craze. When the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum started to fall, they said that there would be a mass selling of GPUs on the second hand market. Ethereum fell about 50% in a few months from a high of .14 BTC ($400) to a low of .069 BTC ($163). Since May, there has been and continues to be a shortage of AMD Radeon RX 470/480/570/580. Even RX 460s and 560s are some what hard to find. The AMD Radeon RX 580 is the best for mining Ethereum. The higher end GPUs (of AMD, since they are better for Ethereum) can work at 25-35 MH/s 1,000 MH/s equals 1 GH/s 1,000 GH/s equals 1 TH/s On June 16, 2017, Ethereum's network was 45.7 TH/s. Today, its network hashrate is 81.9 TH/s One analyst mentioned that trans...